When Is the Next Cannabis Lottery? State Timing and How to Prepare
Cannabis lotteries run state by state. Here is how to find the next draw date, which states use lotteries, and what to prepare before applications open.
The short answer
Low. In most states that hand out cultivation licenses by lottery, the number of qualified applicants runs several times higher than the number of licenses. A realistic range is 1 in 5 at the friendliest end and worse than 1 in 50 in the crowded ones. Illinois craft grower rounds drew thousands of entries for a few dozen slots. If you are entering one draw and hoping for one license, plan for the math to be against you.
How a cultivation lottery actually works
It is rarely a pure raffle. The sequence in most states looks like this:
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- Pre-qualification. You submit an application, pay a nonrefundable fee, and prove you meet zoning, capital, and ownership requirements. This is where most entries die.
- Eligibility review. Regulators score or screen applications. Only applications that pass get a lottery number.
- The draw. A random number generator or a physical drawing assigns licenses, sometimes in tiers by canopy size or by social equity status.
- Post-award compliance. Winning does not mean operating. You still need to build out, pass inspection, and stay funded.
That first step is the part people underestimate. In several rounds, a third or more of submitted applications were rejected before the lottery even ran.
What the real ratios look like
Public numbers from state regulators tell the story better than any estimate.
- Illinois ran lotteries for craft grower licenses and published winner lists after receiving far more eligible applicants than licenses available.
- Ohio used a random drawing to award cultivator licenses under its adult-use program, with a pool that dwarfed the license count.
- Missouri's medical program published application totals in the thousands for roughly 60 cultivation facilities.
- Connecticut's lottery for cannabis establishment licenses, cultivators included, drew applicants well past the number of slots.
If you want a working number, assume your single entry has a low single-digit to low double-digit percentage chance in a competitive state, and near-certain odds only in newly opened markets with few applicants.
Why your odds are worse than the raw math
Three things cut your chances.
License caps and tiering. Many states split cultivation into tiers by canopy square footage, and the small tiers fill fast. You may be competing for 10 slots, not 60.
Weighted draws. Social equity, veteran, or legacy-operator status often earns extra entries or a separate pool. If you do not qualify, you are in the general pool, and the general pool is the deep one.
Multiple entries per applicant. Some states allow one application per entity, and well-funded groups file through several LLCs. That thins the odds for everyone filing alone.
Ways to improve your chances
None of these guarantee anything. They move the needle.
- Enter every qualifying state. Odds do not stack cleanly, but three draws at 5 percent beat one draw at 5 percent.
- Check whether you qualify for a social equity pool before you spend a dollar on application help.
- Target craft or small-canopy tiers first. They see less competition from multi-state operators.
- Treat the application like a compliance filing, not a business plan contest. A missing exhibit is the most common reason a good project never reaches the draw.
- Look at the secondary market. Buying an existing license or partnering with a winner is often cheaper than three years of lottery entries and legal fees.
The math to run before you enter
Add up application fees, consultants, legal review, real estate deposits, and the cost of capital sitting idle for a year. Divide by your realistic probability of winning. That is your expected cost per license. Compare it to the price of a license you can buy outright. In a lot of states, the lottery is the more expensive route, not the cheaper one.
Also budget for a second year. Lotteries get delayed, litigated, and rerun. Winners in several states waited through appeals before they could break ground.
Bottom line
Cannabis cultivation lotteries are worth entering when the fee is small relative to your budget and you already meet the requirements. They are a bad plan if the license is your only path to market and you are counting on luck. Run the numbers, file clean, and keep a plan B that does not depend on a random draw.